Elections | Off Message | Seven Days | Vermont's Independent Voice
Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin and his Republican rival for the state's top job, Sen Randy Brock (R-Franklin), met for their second debate of the season Wednesday morning — and it was a feisty affair.

Hosted by WDEV-FM and moderated by Mark Johnson, the hour-long debate was held at the Red Hen Bakery in Middlesex. The candidates spent much of their time discussing what seems to be the defining issue of this race — their competing health care plans — but touched on a number of other topics as well, including industrial wind, the lottery, taxes, jobs and, um, pot.

Click here to listen to a recording of the debate and read on for seven lessons we learned from it. (Photo of Brock and Shumlin courtesy of WPTZ-TV's Stewart Ledbetter.)

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 5:40 PM

What to look for in this week's dead-tree edition of Seven Days...

One final note: Friends and family of former VTDigger.org reporter Alan Panebaker, who died in a kayaking accident last week, will hold a celebration of his life at Eagle Park in Bristol this Saturday at 2 p.m. Donations can be made in Panebaker’s name to American Whitewater, where he last worked, at P.O. Box 1540, Cullowhee, NC 28723.

Illustration by Torrey Valyou

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 9:46 AM

With the 2012 campaign season in full swing, Seven Days has teamed up with VTDigger.org to create a fact-checker feature to test the "truthiness" of claims made by the candidates who want your vote this November. This week's Fact Checker was written by Paul Heintz.

CLAIM: "We've added 7500 new jobs in the state of Vermont since we got elected two years ago."   

— Gov. Peter Shumlin, campaign kickoff,  September 10, 2012 

FACTS: If you've spent any time listening to Gov. Peter Shumlin argue his case for a second term, you've heard the number 7500. That's how many jobs he says have been created in Vermont since he took office in January 2011. 

Shumlin's campaign says it arrived at that figure by comparing the Vermont Department of Labor's tally of not-seasonally-adjusted, nonfarm jobs between January 2011 and June 2012. And, indeed, the number increased by 7550 during that time frame — from 296,600 to 304,150 jobs. 

But the story doesn't end in June. In July, the number of nonfarm jobs dropped 4950 to 299,200. And in August, it dipped another 900 to 298,300. Throughout Shumlin's 21 months in office, therefore, the number of not-seasonally-adjusted, nonfarm jobs has increased by just 1700. 

Of course, there's a reason economists seasonally adjust employment figures: They tend to fluctuate in a fairly predictable pattern throughout the year. For instance, last summer's June-to-July drop-off was similar to this past one; in 2011, the June-to-July nonfarm employment figure dropped from 299,450 to 292,950 — the lowest jobs figure of Shumlin's tenure. In December 2011, that figure surged to 308,100 — the highest of his tenure. 

When employment numbers are seasonally adjusted, Shumlin's record looks a little better — though not quite as rosy as he claims. Between January 2011 and August 2012, the number of seasonally adjusted, nonfarm jobs increased by 4700 — from 298,500 to 303,200. 

Another way to judge Shumlin's economic record is to look at unemployment figures. Between January 2011 and August 2012, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed Vermonters fell from 21,600 (6 percent) to 19,000 (5.3 percent). While unemployment is lower now than when Shumlin took office, it has actually increased during each of the past three months, from a low of 16,400 (4.6 percent) in May.  

SCORE: Gov. Shumlin's claim  that Vermont has added 7500 jobs  during his tenure may have been true in June, but it's not true anymore. Using his own criteria, the correct number would be 1700. If Shumlin wants to provide an accurate sense of job creation during his tenure, he should shift to the seasonally adjusted measure, which shows an increase of 4700 nonfarm jobs during his tenure. By cherry-picking the best numbers available to him, Shumlin exaggerates Vermont's job growth during the past 21 months. We rate his claim "Mostly False."

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Oh snap! Dudes got all heated on the campaign trail Tuesday (and by "on the campaign trail" I mean "in my email inbox").

The attack press releases from politicians just kept coming yesterday and, busy putting out today's paper, we here at Off Message headquarters just couldn't keep up! Don't worry, though. We outsourced our coverage to other media outlets.

Here's a recap, in case you missed it:

Lindley v. Shumlin, re: Sorrell: Okay, so this actually started Monday. In a letter he sent to Gov. Peter Shumlin, Vermont GOP chairman Jack Lindley was all like: Hey dude, why don't you appoint an independent counsel to investigate illegal super PAC coordination between Attorney General Bill Sorrell and former governor Howard Dean? But on Tuesday, Shumlin's legal counsel, Sarah London, wrote Lindley back saying: Um, nah, dude. Go talk to Sorrell. Or that TJ Donovan guy. In response to which Lindley sent out another press release Tuesday afternoon calling Shumlin's decision, "an abdication of his duty to protect the rights and interests of Vermonters," allowing Sorrell "to conduct his campaign with impunity and in defiance of the law."

More after the jump...

Monday, September 24, 2012

Posted By on Mon, Sep 24, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Do you know Jack?

You might soon, if you own a TV.

That's because Jack McMullen, the Republican candidate for attorney general, has launched a television advertising campaign — and he plans to stay on the airwaves through Election Day. McMullen says he's planning to run five different ads, one of which will make light of his famous "teats on a cow" fumble in a 1998 debate.

"We intend to run a vigorous campaign here," McMullen says. "I have to overcome what appears to be the perception I'm not running a serious campaign. I think I am running a serious campaign. I think I'm a credible candidate, if you know my background."

To that end, McMullen on Saturday began airing a 30-second biographical ad on WCAX-TV and WPTZ-TV. The ad begins with a narrator asking, "Do you know Jack?" It then informs the viewer about "The Real Jack" — focusing on his working class roots, military career and Harvard education. It closes by briefly touching on McMullen's signature issue: crime.

Posted By on Mon, Sep 24, 2012 at 12:54 PM

So here's the thing about endorsement press conferences: They're usually totes boring — but there's always potential. What's the potential? That some zany mayor from Barre might go off-script and tell us how he really feels.

That's what happened Monday morning when the mayors of seven Vermont cities gathered on the steps of the Statehouse to endorse Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin's bid for a second term. That Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger (who worked for Shumlin in the '90s) and Montpelier Mayor John Hollar (a prominent Democratic lobbyist) support the gov's reelect ain't no thang.

But then there's Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon, an outspoken Republican who said during the 2010 gubernatorial campaign that Shumlin's corrections plan would put, um, murderers and rapists on the streets. But who then hinted to Seven Days this May that he might endorse Shumlin this time around. But who then, with his wife, gave Shumlin's opponent, Sen. Randy Brock (R-Franklin), a $4000 campaign contribution. But who then organized Monday's mayoral endorsement-a-thon.

Which made us reporters go all, like, what's the deal with that, bro?

"Listen, one thing you can always count on me to do is tell you the truth," Lauzon began.

And then he told us the truth.

Posted By on Mon, Sep 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

What's happening in Vermont news and politics this week? A former presidential candidate leading the charge to repeal Citizens United returns to Vermont. Chittenden County Senate candidates speed date you. And Gov. Peter Shumlin and Republican challenger Randy Brock face off in debate No. 2.

Got an event you want listed in next week's calendar? Email us by Friday.

Monday, September 24

  • U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) will greet the press at Burlington International Airport at 10 a.m. before jetting to New York for the United Nations general assembly session beginning today.
  • Gov. Peter Shumlin will be making a "campaign announcement" on the Statehouse steps this morning. What is it? Stayed tuned to Off Message to find out.
  • U.S. Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) holds a press conference at the University of Vermont at noon to announce legislation he says will "curb the skyrocketing cost" of college education, which climbed 8.3 percent last year.
  • At 7 p.m., the Burlington City Council will take up, among other things, whether to put a $100,000 down payment on buying the Winooski One hydroelectric plant.
More after the jump...

Friday, September 21, 2012

Posted By on Fri, Sep 21, 2012 at 7:46 PM

UPDATED WITH VIDEO: See below, "Who's He Fooling," one of three ads Brock is began airing Saturday morning.

 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Randy Brock will launch his general election television advertising campaign Saturday with a clip of his Democratic opponent, Gov. Peter Shumlin, singing the Beatles.

Brock says his campaign has invested $70,000 in the 10-day ad run, which starts Saturday morning.  According to public records obtained at WCAX-TV, Brock will spend $26,671 on 68 spots on the station during that time period. Brock's campaign says it also plans to go up on WPTZ-TV and Fox44.

Brock says the three ads in rotation, which will focus on the economy and health care, "are designed to show the contrast between my position and those of Gov. Shumlin."

He also confirmed that one of the ads will feature the governor singing the Beatles' classic, "Here Comes the Sun." The footage presumably comes from Shumlin's impromptu a capella performance of the song during the Burlington Business Association's annual dinner in April at the Hilton.

"I hope they'll be kind of fun and enjoyable," Brock says.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Posted By on Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 7:58 PM

For the past two weeks, the conservative super PAC Vermonters First has been blanketing the airwaves with ads supporting two Republican candidates and opposing single-payer health care.

After exhausting its first $100,000 worth of television spots at the end of this week, the super PAC is coming back for another round. And, this time, it's extending its reach from your television to your mailbox: The group has sent out new direct mail pieces, which hit the streets Thursday.

According to public records obtained at WCAX-TV, Vermonters First is spending another $47,167 for two more weeks on that station, starting Monday, Sept. 24. That's slightly more than the $45,390 it spent on the current, expiring round of ads.

Posted By on Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 6:59 AM

By disclosing a dinner date with the head of a conservative super PAC, did Republican gubernatorial candidate Randy Brock cost himself a crap-load of free television advertisements?

In this brave new world of post-Citizens United campaign finance regulations, that could well be the case.

During a press conference Brock called Wednesday morning in Berlin to discuss his health care proposals, reporters' questions eventually shifted from the topic at hand to Brock's impressions of Vermonters First, a new, Republican-oriented super PAC.

His answers, at first, were unsurprising: that he'd seen the group's latest commercial slamming single-payer health care reform but hadn't formed a real opinion about it; that he knows its sole donor, Lenore Broughton but not terribly well; and that he has "mixed feelings" about whether it would be helpful for such a super PAC to run ads supporting his campaign.

But then he said something quite surprising: Asked when he last spoke with Tayt Brooks, the political operative behind Vermonters First, Brock said he'd spoken with Brooks the day before. Asked what the two had talked about, Brock clammed right up.

"I won't discuss what I've discussed with him personally, but I can tell you this: It had nothing to do with what's happening with Vermonters First. That is a taboo subject with us," he said.

Pressed on whether they'd spoken about his own campaign, Brock said, "We really didn't talk about the campaign, no. We did not talk about the campaign."

He'd be wise not to. Though a series of recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions has muddied the waters of campaign finance regulations, one thing is perfectly clear: Political candidates who coordinate with so-called "independent expenditure" groups risk triggering more onerous limits on the groups' ability to raise and spend money on their behalf. That is, a super PAC like Vermonters First can take a $100,000 check and use it to cut ads supporting Brock's campaign — but if they coordinate with Brock on such expenditures, they are suddenly bound by Vermont's comparatively strict contribution and spending limits.